NFL Week 10 player prop picks: 3 best bets for Sunday (2024)

The Panthers have both the worst defensive DVOA in the NFL and the worst rushing defensive DVOA. Unsurprisingly, they also allow the most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 159.3, with the next-closest team at 149.8, almost full 10 yards lower.

Part of that is due to the fact that the Panthers have spent the least time in the NFL leading this season, so they have faced the most rushing attempts, but with the Giants as 6.5-point favorites, the guess is that they will be playing from the lead the majority of the game.

The Panthers also allow the fifth-highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt, so they have a bad run defense on a per attempt basis as well.

As for Tracy Jr, he has been the lead back for the Giants since Week 5. He has played 68.4 percent of RB snaps for the Giants, which is the ninth-highest RB snap rate in the NFL. He has hit this rushing prop in three of the five games in this stretch as well.

Devin Singletary has been active for the past three games, but Tracy Jr. has still played in 67, 57 and 72 percent of snaps in those three contests.

The two games that Tracy Jr. has gone under in the last five were two games in which the Giants got blown out from the jump, which is unlikely to happen in this matchup against the Panthers.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. over 72.5 rushing yards (-113): 1 Unit

Breece Hall 70+ Rush. Yards (+100) FanDuel

New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET

The 5-4 Cardinals have been on a roll, winning three straight and surprisingly leading the NFC West, but we are fading them in this game in general, and fading their rush defense against Breece Hall as well.

Since the Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh and promoted Todd Downing to offensive play-caller, Hall has been getting the lion's share of this team's RB snaps, and he has been heavily utilized.

It has been four full games, and Hall has hit at least 70 rushing yards three times.

More importantly, however, his RB snap rate has been 74 percent or higher in four straight games, including over 80 percent twice, after his snap rate exceeded 74 percent in just two of five games prior to the coaching change.

This is also a plus matchup against a Cardinals rush defense that we are ready to fade after a couple good games in a row.

From Weeks 1-6, the Cardinals allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game on the eighth-highest adjusted yards before contact allowed. In the three weeks since, they have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game.

Of course, it helps that in two of those weeks, they played the Bears' and Chargers' bottom-10 rushing offenses.

So, despite the recent success of the Arizona run D against a soft schedule, we are expecting Hall to have a good game on the ground in this one.

Breece Hall 70+ rushing yards (+100): 1 Unit

George Kittle o55.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365

San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET

The 49ers are getting healthier on offense with Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings returning this week, but there is still value on Kittle's receiving yards against this Bucs defense.

The Bucs passing D has been weak in general this year, but it has been particularly weak guarding the tight end position.

We targeted Travis Kelce against the Bucs in their last game, and that came to fruition, to the tune of 14 receptions for 100 yards. Of course, we are not expecting 14 receptions for Kittle, but he has a great matchup to have a good game.

Since Week 3, the Bucs defense has allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends on the most receptions per game and the second-most targets.

Kittle is also in the midst of a great season, as he has gone over this number in five of seven games.

Even with the Niners likely getting McCaffrey and Jennings back, they are still missing WR Brandon Aiyuk, who is out for the season, so we are not expecting Kittle to have his target volume shrink by a dramatic amount, especially in a plus matchup against Tampa Bay.

George Kittle over 55.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit

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