Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the state of the presidential race heading into the summer (2024)

Amna Nawaz:

This Memorial Day marks the beginning of a new phase of the 2024 presidential campaign.

We take stock of where the race stands with our Politics Monday team. That is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Great to see you both, as always. Thanks for being here.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

So, Memorial Day kind of kicks off this summer campaign season, more folks paying attention, especially with the first debate just a month away.

There's new data from the Swing State Project, which I think you know something about, Amy. It's the Cook Political Report with a Democratic and Republican polling group as well. It's worth looking at some battleground state polls here really quickly, because they do show Mr. Trump leading in six out of those seven swing states, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona.

It's only in Wisconsin that Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are currently tied. And, Amy, we know polls are a moment in time.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

They are not predictive.

Amy Walter:

That's right.

Amna Nawaz:

All of these things are true. But what else stood out to you from that survey?

Amy Walter:

Well, the reason we did these surveys, one, we wanted to go look at swing states specifically, because, obviously, the race for 270 electoral votes goes through these states.

The next president is the one who is successful there. So we wanted to get a sense, not just of what's going on in the big picture, but how — people specifically in these states. And we wanted to kind of ask some questions and test, especially for those conflicted voters, what are the things that are really moving them to think about one candidate versus the other?

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

What we came away with from this project in the big picture way is, at least for today, the election is being viewed by most voters through an economic lens more than anything else.

And the issue of cost is really — when we say the economy, for these voters, it means costs. We ask them…

Amna Nawaz:

Cost of living, right?

Amy Walter:

The cost of living, how much stuff costs. And the challenge for Biden right now is that not only are people very upset about the cost of things, and they do in many ways blame Biden. He has very low job approval on that.

But when you take it one step further and say, well, think about a four-year term for Donald Trump, a four-year term, another four-year term for Biden, who do you think will handle this issue better? And that's where Trump really succeeds. He's winning voters who do you think will bring costs down by 56 percent. Only 40 percent think Biden will do the same.

So if the economy is the driver, this is really where Trump has the biggest advantage.

Amna Nawaz:

And, Tam, you were just in one of those states, in North Carolina. Did all that ring true with the people you talked to?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Certainly.

I was specifically focused on Black voters, which are a group of voters that the Biden campaign readily acknowledges they have a problem with, or at least a very big challenge that they need to address. And so they're trying to have these conversations early.

I went out with a Democratic Party official in North Carolina and went around a predominantly Black community in eastern North Carolina, went to a barbershop, and the message actually — ultimately went to three barbershops. The message was pretty clear, that their lives haven't gotten better.

In one way or another, the quote was repeated again and again. I vote for Democrats all the time. I voted for Joe Biden. My life hasn't changed for the better.

And then I only met one voter who said he would vote for Trump because of that, because he's also a small business owner, and he feels like the former president would be better for small business owners. Everybody else is like, ah, I don't love Biden. I don't feel like my life is better. There's this just frustration with the lack of feeling like things have changed and a desire for something better.

But that's the challenge that the Biden campaign faces. These are people who should be Biden voters, and they, in theory, should be enthusiastic, and they are definitely not enthusiastic.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, we know President Biden on the campaign trail has talked about the improvements the economy has gone through. He also continues to talk about this central message about democracy being on the ballot.

He was even talking about this at a graduation ceremony at West Point just this weekend. Take a listen.

Joe Biden, President of the United States: From the very beginning, nothing is guaranteed about our democracy in America. Every generation has an obligation to defend it, protect it, preserve it, to choose it. Now is your turn.

Amna Nawaz:

Former President Trump, meanwhile, has been interestingly reaching outside some of the battleground states. He's been rallying in New York, in New Jersey. He actually recently went to the Libertarian convention over the weekend, got a bit of a mixed reaction. Here he is.

Donald Trump, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: Now I think you should nominate me or at least vote for me. And we should win together.

(Booing)

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, some boos, some cheers.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

(Crosstalk)

Amna Nawaz:

What's the strategy here, though? Is there room for Mr. Trump to expand his base there?

Amy Walter:

Well, going to Tam's point about with African American voters and what we saw in our own polling, was similar as well with Latino voters.

There is a pathway here for Donald Trump to win over some voters that maybe didn't show up in the last election or maybe who voted for Biden. So they are very much trying to expand the map even beyond those states. They're talking about going into Minnesota, going into Virginia. Now, Minnesota is a state that hasn't voted for a Republican for many, many years.

They have to go back 40 years since you have seen that happen. And Joe Biden carried the state by seven points. But polls have come out showing it to be very close, in part because of what we're seeing in our own polling that Biden is just — doesn't have the base enthusiastic. Those voters who turned out for him in 2020, they're not necessarily voting for Trump, but they're not particularly engaged.

And so if you're the Trump campaign, take advantage of that.

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Amy Walter:

Nothing is better for a candidate than momentum.

When you get it, it builds on itself. And it also sends a signal to the other team like, hey, we're really far ahead. You guys should be depressed because we're going to win so big.

Amna Nawaz:

How worried is the Biden campaign about that chipping away at the margins, where this will be won or lost?

Tamara Keith:

Right.

So I do have to say that what Trump is doing is the power of positive thinking that Trump has always done, which is like, oh, yes, Minnesota, New Jersey, they're all in play. And his buildings are taller than they — than math says they are. So there is an element of the power of positive thinking in the way he approaches, well, everything.

In terms of the Biden campaign, they are actively reaching out to Nikki Haley voters. They are working on a plan to have Republicans talking to Republicans who may have concerns about those democracy issues and other things where Trump doesn't perform as well.

And so they are — the fact that they are looking to try to win over Republicans means that there is the very real possibility that we're seeing a real shift in the electorate…

Amna Nawaz:

Yes.

Tamara Keith:

… divided along educational lines and some other shifts where the Biden campaign is thinking about its electorate as different than it was four years ago.

Amna Nawaz:

And, at the same time, we know the economy is the top issue.

I have to point something out that really struck me from one recent poll from Harris/Guardian that basically talks about the difference between reality and what people believe to be true. Some 56 percent of people believe that the U.S. is experiencing a recession. It is not. Some 49 percent believe the S&P 500 is down for the year. It's not. It's actually up.

Some 49 percent believe unemployment at a 50-year high. It's actually at a 50-year low. Just briefly to both of you, what do you make of that?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

When people are feeling upset about, the one thing, again, we saw in our own polling is how much stuff costs, I think that is bleeding into, well, if things cost so much, then the overall economy must be doing poorly.

But when we ask voters exactly that question, how do you measure the economy in your own life, it's doing bad or it's doing well…

Amna Nawaz:

Thank you.

Amy Walter:

… it wasn't the stock market. It wasn't unemployment. It wasn't even how much was coming into their household. It was how much things costs.

Tamara Keith:

This is also a sign that there are issues with the way people are getting information now, that these are clear facts that people aren't feeling and they're not seeing in their sources of information and their sources of news.

And that is a real challenge that we all as a society face. It is also a very big challenge for the person who is asking for a second term.

Amy Walter:

Absolutely.

Amna Nawaz:

That's right.

Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, thank you so much. Always great to see you.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.